Thursday, October 2, 2025

GNFC (Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd.)- Stock Analysis and Study-

GNFC (Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd.)

Study Date: 01.09.2025
Current Price: ₹526 (Below Book Value: ₹569.68/-)

Quick Indicators

P – Poor 👎🏻
G – Good 🌸 / 👍🏻
D – Dividend
B – Buy
S – Sell
H – High 👍🏻
L – Low 👎🏻
M – Mean

Financial Snapshot

June Result: ⬇️ 20.78% YoY
Dividend Policy: 1 time annually (September)
Latest Dividend: 🌸 ₹18/- per Share
Record Date: 02.09.2025
Payout Date: Not yet announced
52W H/L: 707 / 449
PE Ratio: 13.86 (Good 🌸)
Sector PE: 25.56
ROCE: 9.57% (Poor 👎🏻)
ROE: 7.08% (Poor 👎🏻)
Book Value: ₹569.68 (Good 🌸)
Face Value: ₹10
Beta: 1.26 (High Volatility 👎🏻)
Forecast: H / M / L (Mixed Trend)

Strength Indicators

Piotroski Score: 8 🌸🌸 (Very Good – Strong Financials)
FII Holding: ⬇️ 12.67% (Prev. 15.03%)
DII Holding: ⬆️ 10.49% (Prev. 10.13%)
Promoters: 🌸 Stable at 41.30%
Institutional Investors: ⬇️ 23.16% (Prev. 25.16%)

Seasonality Performance (17-Year Historical Data)

Jan: 7/17 👎🏻 (+2.44%) → Buy
Feb: 4/17 (Very Poor 👎🏻 -4.32%) → Buy
Mar: 9/17 (Good 🌸 +3.30%) → Hold
Apr: 15/17 (Very Good 🌸 +9.95%) → Sell & Book Profit
May: 6/17 (Poor 👎🏻 +2.13%) → Buy
Jun: 9/17 (-0.64%) → Neutral
Jul: 11/17 (Good 🌸 +2.71%) → Sell
Aug: 9/17 (OK -3.25%) → Buy
Sep: 10/17 (OK +3.56%) → Sell (Dividend ₹18/-)
Oct: 10/17 (🌸 +9.26%) → Sell & Book Profit
Nov: 8/17 (Poor 👎🏻 -2.64%) → Buy
Dec: 9/17 (OK +1.01%) → Sell

📌 Seasonal Strategy for Max Profit:

Best Buy Months: February & August
Best Sell Months: April & October

Conclusion

GNFC is currently trading below its book value, offering a margin of safety. While profitability ratios (ROE/ROCE) are weak, the Piotroski score and dividend policy are strong positives. Seasonal trends suggest tactical buying in dips (Feb/Aug) and profit-booking in Apr/Oct.

Disclaimer

This document is purely for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents personal study, historical data interpretation, and thought-provoking observations. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions after consulting certified financial advisors, keeping in mind their personal goals and risk appetite.

GNFC

Study on 01.09.2025

Current Price: 526 (Below Book Value:569.68/-)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 👍🏻

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

H-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

Result :June Result ⬇️ 20.78% YOY

Paying dividend 1 time in year (September)

Dividend Announce :🌸 18/- per Share

Record date :02.Sep 2025

Payout date :

52W H/L: 707/449

PE: 13.86 (Good)

PE Sector:25.56

ROCE:9.57% (Poor👎🏻)

ROE: 7.08% (Poor👎🏻)

Book Value: 569.68 (Good)

Face Value:10

Beta: 1.26 (Poor)

Forcast:H/M/L

Piotroski Score : 8 🌸🌸 (V.Good) Strong Finance

FII: ⬇️ 12.67% (15.03%)

DII: ⬆️ 10.49% ( 10.13%)

Promoter: 🌸 Unchanged (41.30%)

Institution Invester : ⬇️ 23.16% (25.16%)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan:7/17 👎🏻(+2.44%)

(Buy)

Feb: 4/17 (V.Poor)👎🏻 (-4.32%) (Buy)

Mar: 9/17 (Good🌸) (+3.30%) Hold

Apr: 15/17 (V.Good 🌸) (9.95%) (Sell and Book Profit)

May: 6/17 (Poor👎🏻) (+2.13%) -Buy

June:9/17 (-0.64%)(OK)

July: 11/17 (+2.71%)🌸Good- Sell

Aug: 9/17 (OK)(-3.25%) Buy

Sep:10/17 (Ok) (+3.56%) (Dividend -18/-) Sell

Oct: 10/17 (🌸)(+9.26%) (Sell and Book Profit

Nov: 8/17 (Poor 👎🏻) (-2.64%) (Buy)

Dec: 9/17 (Ok) (+1.01%) sell

For Max Profit buy in Feb and August

Sell in April and October

Disclaimer

This document is purely for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents personal study, data interpretation, and thought-provoking observations. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions after consulting certified financial advisors, taking into account their own objectives and risk appetite.

Crompton Greaves- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis / Study

Company: Crompton Greaves
Date: 10.09.2025

Key Valuation Metrics

Current Price: ₹319

Book Value: ₹48.26 → 10x above book value (Expensive)

P/E Ratio: 38.90 🌸 (Sector PE: 70.58 – Relatively Attractive)

ROCE: 19% 🌸 (Healthy)

ROE: 17.4% 🌸 (Good Return on Equity)

Face Value: ₹2

Beta: 0.71 🌸 (Low Volatility – Defensive Stock)

52W H/L: ₹469 / ₹301

📊 Forecast Price Range (H/M/L): ₹470 / ₹406 / ₹335

Quarterly Performance (June 2025 – YoY)

Sales: ↓ 7% 👎🏻 (Poor)

EBITDA: ↓ 18% 👎🏻 (Poor)

Net Profit: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor)

EPS: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor)

📉 Observation: Weak operational and bottom-line performance.

Dividend Policy

Dividend Frequency: Once a year (July)

Latest Dividend (July 2025): ₹3 per share 🌸

Record Date / Payout Date: [Data not provided]

Seasonality Analysis (Historical Trends)

Jan: 3/9 Positive 👎🏻 (+2.89%)

Feb: 1/9 Positive 👎👎 (-4.31%) → Buy Opportunity

Mar: 5/9 Positive 👎🏻 (-1.46%)

Apr: 5/9 Positive 👎🏻 (+1.60%)

May: 7/9 Positive 🌸🌸 (+3.50%) → Sell & Book Profits

June: 8/10 Positive 🌸🌸 (+2.65%) → Sell & Book Profits

July: 7/10 Positive (+4.65%)

Aug: 8/9 Positive 🌸🌸 (+3.02%) → Sell Opportunity

Sep: 5/10 Positive 👎🏻 (-1.64%) → Buy Opportunity

Oct: 3/9 Positive 👎🏻 (-0.76%) → Buy Opportunity

Nov: 7/9 Positive 🌸🌸 (+0.96%) → Sell Opportunity

Dec: 4/9 Positive 👎🏻 (+2.25%)

Financial Strength & Shareholding

Piotroski Score: 7 🌸🌸 (Very Good – Strong Financial Position)

FII Holding: 29.20% (Previous: 30.34%) ⬇️

DII Holding: 58.93% (Previous: 57.04%) ⬆️

Promoter Holding: Unchanged

Total Institutional Investors: 88.13% (Previous: 87.38%) ⬆️

Investment Strategy (Seasonality-Based)

For Maximum Profit Potential:

Buy in Feb → Sell in May–June–July–Aug

Buy in Sep–Oct → Sell in Nov–Dec

Verdict

Valuation: Expensive (10x Book Value), but supported by strong ROCE & ROE.

Performance: Current quarter results weak 👎🏻.

Positives: Strong institutional holding, low beta, good Piotroski score.

Negatives: Sales and profit decline, high valuation.

Disclaimer

This document is purely for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents personal study, data interpretation, and thought-provoking observations. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions after consulting certified financial advisors, taking into account their own objectives and risk appetite.

Stock Analyze /Self Study on 10.09.2025

Crompton Greaves

Current Price: 317 (10 time Above Book Value: 48.26)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

--------------------------------------

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (-7%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (-18%) Poor👎🏻

Net Profit:(-19%) Poor👎🏻

EPS;: (-19%) Poor👎🏻

-------------------------------------

Paying dividend 1 time in year (3/- in July)

Dividend Announce :🌸 3/- per Share (already paid in July )

Record date :

Payout date :

--------------------------------------

Current Price: 319

52W H/L: 469/301

PE: 38.90 (Good🌸)

PE Sector: 70.58

ROCE:19% (Good🌸)

ROE: 17.4 (Good🌸)

Book Value :48.26 (Low)

Face Value:2

Beta: 0.71 (Good🌸)

Forcast:H/M/L

470/406/335

-------------------------------------

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 3/9 (Poor,👎) (+2.89%)

Feb:1/9( V.poor👎👎) (-4.31) Buy

Mar:5/9 (Poor 👎) (-1.46%)

Apr:5/9 (Poor 👎)(+1.60)

May: 7/9 (V.good🌸🌸)(+3.50%)

(Sell and book Profit)

June:8/10( V.good🌸🌸)(+2.65%)

(Sell and book Profit)

July: 7/10 (+4.65%)

Aug :8/9 (V.good🌸🌸) (+3.02%) sell

Sep:5/10(Poor👎) (-1.64%) Buy

Oct: 3/9 (Poor👎) (-0.76%) Buy

Nov:7/9 (V.Good🌸🌸)(+0.96%) Sell

Dec:4/9 (Poor👎)(+2.25%)

–-------------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 7 🌸🌸 (V.Good) Strong Finance

FII: 29.20% (30.34)

DII: 58.93% (57.04%)

Promoter:unchange

Institution Invester : 88.13% (87.38%)

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

------------------------------------

Shareholding max upto

In current case -Nov

For Max Profit

1. Buy in Feb,---Sell in May-June-July-August,

2. Buy in Sep - Oct Sell in Nov-Dec

Disclaimer:

The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.

content of the articles and the interpretation of data are solely the personal views of writers/ authors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific objectives, resources and only after consulting such independent advisors as may be necessary.

Punjab National Bank (PNB)- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis and Study

Punjab National Bank (PNB)
Study Date: 29.08.2025

📊 Key Financial Snapshot

Current Price: ₹101.45
52-Week High/Low: ₹117 / ₹85
Book Value: ₹82.65
Face Value: ₹2
PE Ratio (TTM): 7.02 (Fair; Sector Avg: 8.63)
ROCE: 6.32% 👎🏻 (Poor)
ROE: 15.2% 🌸 (Good)
Beta: 1.15 👎🏻 (High Volatility)
Piotroski Score: 3 👎🏻 (Weak Financials)

💰 Dividend Profile

Frequency: Once a year
Latest Dividend: ₹2.90/- per share
Payout Date: 20th June 2025

🎯 Forecast Price Range

High (H): ₹130 👍🏻
Mean (M): ₹115 🙂
Low (L): ₹90 👎🏻

📅 Seasonality & Historical Performance

Jan: 6/17 (👎🏻 Poor) +0.21% → Buy
Feb: 6/17 (👎🏻 Very Poor) -8.50% → Strong Buy
Mar: 10/17 (🌸 Good) +4.71% → Sell & Book Profit
Apr: 12/17 (🌸 Very Good) +3.56% → Sell & Book Profit
May: 4/17 (👎🏻 Poor) -0.76% → Buy
Jun: 7/17 (🙂 Moderate) +1.72%
Jul: 10/17 (🌸 Good) +1.90% → Sell
Aug: 6/17 (👎🏻 Poor) -2.72% → Buy
Sep: 9/17 (🌸 Good) +1.34%
Oct: 10/17 (🌸 Good) +6.16% → Sell & Book Profit
Nov: 10/17 (🌸 Good) +3.33% → Sell
Dec: 8/17 (🙂 Neutral) +1.14% → No

✅ Quick Rating Box

P – Poor 👎🏻
G – Good 🌸
D – Dividend 💰
B – Buy 📈
S – Sell 📉
H – High 👍🏻
L – Low 👎🏻
M – Mean 🙂

🔎 Interpretation & Insights

Strengths: Attractive PE vs sector, healthy ROE, consistent dividend.
Weaknesses: Weak Piotroski score, low ROCE, high volatility.
Opportunities: Seasonal strength in Mar–Apr and Oct–Nov for profit booking.
Risks: Vulnerable to market swings, financial fundamentals not very strong.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This study is purely for educational and analytical purposes. It is based on personal research, data interpretation, and independent analysis. It does not constitute investment advice. Investors should consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Emami Limited- Stock Analysis and Study

Share Name: Emami Limited

Stock Analysis and Study

Study on 30.09.2025

Bulk Deal 30.09.2025 (14 CR.)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

-----------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (0%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (-1%)Poor👎🏻

Net Profit:(+8%) Good🌸

EPS: (+7%) Good 🌸

Result : Q1

-----------------------------------

Paying dividend 3 times a year (Nov-Feb =approx. 8 /- in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 2/- per Share special dividend in May 22 (already paid in May)

Upcoming dividend payout in

Nov: X/-per Share

Feb : X/-Per Share

Record date :

Payout date :

-----------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 8 Good🌸 Strong Finance

FII: 11.89% (12.11%)⬇️

DII: 24.06% (23.67%)⬆️

Promoter:unchange (54.84%)

Institution Invester : 35.95% (35.78%)⬆️

Promoter pledge: 10.50% (13.49%) Good🌸

Public:5.30% (5.38%)

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

-----------------------------------

Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 538.25 (~9X Above BV=60.20👎🏻)

52 W H/L: 768/507

PE: (28.72 👍🏻)

PE Sector: 58.49

ROCE: 32.4%(V. Good🌸🌸)

ROE: 30.2% (V.Good🌸🌸)

Book Value : 60.20 (Poor 👎🏻)

Face Value:1

Beta: 0.64 (Good🌸)

Forcast:H/M/L

885/710/540

-----------------------------------

Seasonality Trend (Last 17 Years Performance)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: (+0.38%) 8/17

Feb: D (-2.64%) 6/17 Poor👎🏻-Buy

Mar: (-0.89%) 10/17

Apr: (+5.17%) 13/17 Good🌸-Sell and book profit

May: (+7.23%) 12/17 Good🌸-Sell

June: (+4.51%)13/17 Good🌸-Sell and book profit

July: (+7.43%)14/17 Good🌸-Sell and book profit (Max)

Aug: (+2.56%) 6/17 -Poor👎🏻 -Buy

Sep: (+0.88%) 10/17

Oct: (-0.30%) 7/17 -Poor 👎🏻-Buy

Nov: D (+0.78%) 7/17 -Poor 👎🏻-Buy

Dec:(-3.10%) 5/17 -V.Poor 👎🏻👎🏻-Buy

-----------------------------------

Strategy Outlook

Shareholding max upto

In the current case - (up coming Dividend in Nov. )

For Max Profit

1.Buy in Dec,---Sell in Jan,

2.Buy in Feb,---Sell in July

3.Buy in Oct Dividend in Nov.

Confidence Vote

👉 If you already hold this stock, best exit opportunity may come in Jan.

Buy or Not Buy Decision: Buy @538/-

Disclaimer

Power Finance Corporation Limited- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis and Study -

Power Finance Corporation Limited

Study on 25.09.2025

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

-----------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬆️ % YOY

Sale : (15%) Good 🌸

EBIDT : (15%)Good 🌸

Net Profit:(24%)Good 🌸

EPS: (24%) Good 🌸

Result : Q1

-----------------------------------

Paying dividend 4 time in year (August-Nov-Feb -June) =apprx. 13.50 /- per share in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 3.70/- per Share (already paid in Aug )

Upcoming dividend payout in

Nov: X/-per Share

Feb : X/-Per Share

June: X/-Per Share

Record date :

Payout date :

-----------------------------------

Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 408.50 (Good 🌸) (Above BV=357👍)

52 W H/L: 524/357

PE: 5.61(Good🌸)

PE Sector: 11.52

ROCE:9.73%(Low👎)

ROE: 21.0% (Good🌸)

Book Value : 357 (Good 🌸)

Face Value: 10

Beta: 1.79 (Bad👎)

Forcast:H/M/L

580/516/450

-----------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 4 (Poor👎🏻) weak Finance

FII: 18.66% (18.84%)⬇️

DII: 16.12% (16.18%)⬇️

Promoter:unchange 55.99%

Institution Invester : 34.78% (35.02%)⬇️

Promoter pledge: Zero👍🏻

Public: 7.46% (7.28)⬆️

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

-----------------------------------

Seasonality Trend- (Av. Monthly Performance%) (Last 17 Years Performance)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: (-1.77%) 6/17 -Poor👎🏻- Buy

Feb: (+0.44%) 9/17

Mar: (+0.02%) 10/17

Apr: (+1.98%) 10/17 (Good🌸) -Sell

May:(+2.52%) 8/17 -Buy

June: (+1.43%) 10/17

July:(+2.76%) 10/17 (Good🌸) -Sell

Aug: (-1.00%) 6/17 -Poor👎🏻 Buy

Sep:(+1.14%) 7/17 (Poor👎🏻) -Buy

Oct: (+4.75%) 10/17

Nov: (+6.24%) 11/17 (V.Good🌸🌸) -Sell and Book Profit

Dec:(+1.26%) 10/17

-----------------------------------

Strategy Outlook

Shareholding max upto In current case -Nov

For Max Profit

1.Buy in Aug- Sep,---Sell in Nov

2.Buy in Jan,---Sell in Apr,

3.Buy in May , ---Sell in July

Confidence Vote: 10/10

Buy or Not Buy Decision- Buy

Disclaimer

NTPC Green- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis and Study -NTPC Green

Study on 02.10.2025

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

-----------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬆️% YOY

Sale : (+18%) ⬆️Good 🌸

EBIDT: (+18%)⬆️Good 🌸

Net Profit:(+59%) ⬆️ Good 🌸

EPS: (+8%) ⬆️ Good 🌸

Result : Q1

-----------------------------------

Paying dividend zero time in year =apprx. 0 /- in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 0/- per Share

Upcoming dividend payout in Not applicable

Record date :NA

Payout date : NA

-----------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 4 (Poor👎🏻) weak Finance

FII: 1.85% (1.98%)⬇️

DII: 4.65% (4.87%)⬇️

Promoter:unchange 89.01%

Institution Invester : 6.50% (6.85%)⬇️

Promoter pledge: Zero

Public: 4.18% (3.87%) ⬆️

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

-----------------------------------

Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 98.15 (5X above BV=21.9) (Poor 👎)

52 W H/L: 155/84.6

PE: 161.55 (Poor 👎)

PE Sector: 28.33

ROCE:4.89%(Low👎)

ROE: 3.85% (Low👎)

Book Value : 21.9 (Poor👎🏻)

Face Value: 10

Beta: 1.13 (Bad👎)

Forcast:H/M/L

120/104/75

-----------------------------------

Seasonality Trend- no Data

-----------------------------------

Strategy Outlook

Short-term: Volatile due to IPO listing gains/profit booking.

Medium-term: Govt. push on renewables = growth driver.

Long-term: Strong potential as India expands solar/wind capacity, but valuation is expensive right now.

👉 Best Strategy:

Investors: Accumulate on dips near ₹80–85 for long-term renewable energy story.

Confidence Vote

Fundamentals: 🌸 Growth story, but weak finance ratios

Valuation: 👎 Overpriced (PE > 160)

Dividends: Not attractive yet

Risk: High volatility post-IPO

📌 Decision:

Short-term: HD-Hold 😅 (Don’t chase at high PE, wait for correction)

Long-term (5+ years): B-Buy 🌸 on dips below ₹90 for green energy exposure.

Buying price : 85- 90/-

As per recent month trend 100/- was Minimum

Disclaimer

Sentiment Analysis – NTPC Green Stock Review

Aspect	Sentiment	Reason
Business Growth	✅ Positive	Strong YoY growth in sales and profit.
Valuation	❌ Negative	Extremely high PE (161+) → Overvalued.
Financial Strength / Ratios	❌ Weak / Cautious	Low ROE/ROCE, Piotroski Score = 4 (Poor).
Dividend Potential	⚠️ Neutral / Future Positive	Dividend-friendly parent, but no strong history yet for subsidiary.
Institutional Behaviour	⚠️ Mild Negative	FIIs/DIIs reducing stake post-IPO.
Promoter Confidence	✅ Positive	89% strong holding, zero pledge.
Risk Level	⚠️ High Risk (Volatile)	New listing + speculative green energy demand.
Overall Sentiment (Current Price Level)	🟡 Neutral to Cautious	Good growth story but priced too high — better to wait or buy on dips.

📊 NTPC Green – Sentiment Meter

Category	Verdict	Emoji
Valuation	Overpriced	🔴👎
Growth Potential	Strong	🟢🌱
Dividend Expectation	Future Positive	🟡💰
Institutional Behaviour	Mild Exit	🟠🚪
Promoter Confidence	Very Strong	🟢🛡️
Volatility / Risk	High	🔴⚠️

Final Investor Sentiment

Decision Type	Verdict	Emoji
Short-Term Traders	Hold / Avoid Fresh Buy	😅✋
Long-Term Investors (5+ yrs)	Buy on Dips (Below ₹90)	✅🛒

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Rupa and Company- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis and Study

Rupa and Company

Study on 24.09.2025

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

-----------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (-13%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (-32%)Poor 👎🏻

Net Profit:(-36%) Poor👎🏻

EPS: (-48%) Poor👎🏻

Result : Q1

-----------------------------------

Paying dividend 1 time in year (August =apprx. 3 /- Per Share in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 3/- per Share (already paid in August)

-----------------------------------

Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 202 (Above BV=128👎🏻)

52 W H/L: 302/174

PE:20.95 (👍🏻)

PE Sector: 33.35

ROCE:10.9%(Low👎)

ROE: 8.39% (Low👎)

Book Value : 128(Low👎🏻)

Face Value: 1

Beta: 1.14(Bad👎)

Forcast:H/M/L

223/223/223

-----------------------------------

Seasonality Trend (Last 17 Years Performance)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan:(-0.77%) 6/13 (Poor👎🏻)- Buy

Feb: (-3.39%) 4/13 (V

Poor👎🏻👎🏻) - Buy

Mar: (-3.47%) 3/13 (V

Poor👎🏻👎🏻)- Buy

Apr: (+10.06%) 8/13 (Good🌸) -Sell

May:(+7.80%) 8/13 (Good🌸) -Sell

June:(+0.92%) 8/13 (Good🌸)- Sell

July: (+1.00%) 8/13

Aug: (-1.66%) 4/13 Poor👎🏻- Buy

Sep: (-4.71%) 3/13 (V. Poor👎🏻👎🏻)-Buy

Oct: (+2.00%) 6/13

Nov: (+2.28%) 8/13 (Good 🌸) -Sell

Dec:(+2.65%) 7/13 (Ok) -Sell

---------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 6 Average Finance 😅

FII: 0.92% (1.11%)⬇️

DII: 4.19% (Unchanged)

Promoter:73.28% (Unchanged)

Institution Invester : 5.11 % (5.30%)⬇️

Promoter pledge: zero

Public:16.55% (16.21%)⬆️

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

-----------------------------------

Strategy Outlook

Shareholding max upto =

In current case -Nov

For Max Profit

1.Buy in Feb-March,---Sell in April-May,

2.Buy in Aug- Sep,---Sell in Nov -Dec,

Confidence Vote

👉 If you already hold this stock, best exit opportunity may come in November .

Disclaimer

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Suzlon Energy- Stock Study and Analysis

Suzlon Energy – Stock Study & Analysis

Date: 18.09.2025

Current Price: ₹58.86 (~20x above Book Value ₹3.29)

🔹 Company Performance & Dividend

Q1 Result (Announced 12 Aug 2025):

Sales: ⬆️ +55% 🌸 Strong revenue growth
EBITDA: ⬆️ +62% 🌸 Margin expansion
Net Profit: ⬆️ +7% 🌸 Positive but moderate
EPS: ⬆️ +9% 🌸 Shareholder value improving

Dividend Policy:

Dividend: ❌ No payout in FY25
Announcement: Zero /- per share

Verdict: Strong operational growth, but no dividend distribution, making Suzlon a pure growth play rather than an income stock.

🔹 Valuation & Financial Metrics

52W H/L: ₹85.40 / ₹46.15
PE: 38.74 (Below sector PE 52.29 → Fair Valued 👍🏻)
ROCE: Weak 👎🏻
ROE: 33.92% 👍🏻 Strong return on equity
Book Value: ₹3.29 👎🏻 Extremely low vs CMP → Highly overvalued
Face Value: ₹2
Beta: 1.49 👎🏻 High volatility → Risky for conservative investors

Forecast Range:

High: ₹81
Mean: ₹76
Low: ₹67

🔹 Ownership Pattern (as of Sept 2025)

FII: 23.03% (↑ from 22.88%)
DII: 10.17% (↑ from 9.31%)
Promoter Holding: 11.74% (↓ from 13.25%)
Promoter Pledge: Zero (Positive sign)
Institutional Investors (FII+DII): 33.20% (↑ from 32.19%)
Public: 38.65% (↑ from 38.29%)

Verdict: Rising institutional interest 🌸, but declining promoter holding ⚠️ may raise governance concerns.

🔹 Piotroski Score

Score: 4/9 👎🏻 – Weak financial strength despite improved results. Investors must be cautious.

🔹 Seasonality & Trading Strategy

Historical monthly patterns (17-year average):

Best Months to Sell: Apr 🌸🌸 (+8.21%), Oct 🌸🌸 (+6.96%), Dec 🌸 (+8.66%)
Best Months to Buy: Feb 👎🏻👎🏻 (-4.15%), Aug 👎🏻👎🏻 (-5.44%), Sep 👎🏻 (-4.44%)

Max Profit Strategy:

Buy in Feb → Sell in April
Buy in Aug → Sell in October

🔹 Final View

Suzlon Energy is a high-volatility growth stock with strong sales momentum and rising institutional participation. However, its very low book value, weak Piotroski score, and zero dividends highlight financial fragility beneath the surface.

✅ Attractive for short-to-mid term traders (seasonality favors swing trades).
⚠️ Risky for long-term conservative investors due to overvaluation and weak fundamentals.

Overall Verdict: HD – Hold 😅 (with tactical Buy-Sell opportunities).

Disclaimer

------------------------------------------------------

Suzlon Energy

Study on 18.09.2025

Current Price: 58.86 (20 times above Book Value: 3.29)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

----------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬆️ % YOY

Sale :⬆️ (+55%) Good 🌸

EBIDT: ⬆️(+62%)Good 🌸

Net Profit:⬆️ (+7%) Good 🌸

EPS: ⬆️ (+9%) Good 🌸

Result : Q1-8 August 2025

Paying dividend zero time in year (X)⬇️

Dividend Announce:🌸 zero/- per Share

Record date : X

Payout date : X

----------------------------------

52 W H/L: 85.40/46.15

PE: 38.74(Good👍🏻)

PE Sector: 52.29

ROCE:% (Poor👎🏻)

ROE: 33.92% (Good👍🏻)

Book Value: 3.29 (V Poor 👎🏻👎🏻)

Face Value: 2

Beta: 1.49 (Poor👎🏻)

Forcast:H/M/L

81/76/67

----------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 4 👎🏻 Week Finance

FII: 23.03% (22.88%)⬆️

DII: 10.17% (9.31%)⬆️

Promoter: 11.74% (13.25%)⬇️

Promoter Pledge: Zero

Institution Invester : 33.20% (32.19%)⬆️

Public:38.65% (38.29%)⬆️

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

Unchanged

----------------------------------

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 8/17 (Good🌸)(+8.22%)

Feb:4/17 (V.Poor👎🏻👎🏻) (-4.15%) -Buy

Mar: 7/17 (Poor ) (-3.34%)- Buy

Apr: 12/17 (V.Good🌸🌸)(+8.21%)- Sell and Book Profit

May: 10/17 (Good 🌸)(+7.38%)-Sell

June: 9/17 (Good🌸)(+7.17%)-Sell

July: 6/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-3.23%)-Buy

Aug: 4/17 (V.Poor 👎🏻👎🏻)(-5.44%)-Buy

Sep: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-4.44%)-Buy

Oct: 12/17 (V Good 🌸🌸)(+6.96%) -Sell and Book Profit

Nov: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-1.85%)- Buy

Dec: 9/17 (Good🌸)(+8.66%)- Sell

----------------------------------

For Max Profit

1.Buy in Feb --Sell in April

2.Buy in Aug --Sell in October.

------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer

ONGC- Stock Study and Analysis

📊 Stock Analysis & Study: ONGC

Study Date: 18 September 2025

🏢 Company Performance & Dividend

Q1 FY25 Results (announced 8 August 2025):

Sales: -3% YoY → Poor 👎🏻
EBITDA: +18% YoY → Good 🌸
Net Profit: -2% YoY → Poor 👎🏻
EPS: -2% YoY → Poor 👎🏻

Dividend Policy:

ONGC pays dividends three times a year (Aug–Nov–Feb), totaling approximately ₹12 per share annually.
Recent payout: 🌸 ₹1.25 per share (already paid in September 2025).
Upcoming dividends:
- November: X/- per share
- February: X/- per share
Record Date & Payout Date: To be announced.

💹 Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: ₹237 (Below BV = ₹273 👍)
52W H/L: ₹345 / ₹205
P/E: 8.27 👎 (Sector P/E: 8.84)
ROCE: 12% (Low 👎)
ROE: 10.6% (Low 👎)
Book Value: ₹273 🌸
Face Value: ₹5
Beta: 1.06 (High volatility 👎)

Price Forecast (H/M/L): ₹340 / ₹273 / ₹205

📈 Seasonality Trend (17-Year Historical Performance)

Jan: 8/16 (+2.95%) → Ok
Feb: 8/17 (-1.54%) → Poor 👎🏻 (Dividend month)
Mar: 8/17 (-0.02%) → Poor 👎🏻
Apr: 13/17 (+3.52%) → Very Good 🌸🌸🌸 (Sell & book profits)
May: 8/17 (+2.39%) → Sell
June: 10/17 (+0.62%) → Good 🌸 (Sell)
July: 7/17 (-1.11%)
Aug: 8/17 (-0.58%) → Dividend month
Sep: 9/17 (+1.53%) → Ok
Oct: 8/17 (+0.84%)
Nov: 5/17 (-0.73%) → Poor 👎🏻 (Buy opportunity + Dividend)
Dec: 9/17 (+1.37%)

📊 Institutional & Financial Indicators

Piotroski Score: 4 👎 → Weak financial health
FII: 7.09% (↓ from 7.12%)
DII: 30.14% (↓ from 30.24%)
Promoter Holding: Unchanged
Total Institutional Holding: 37.23% (↓ from 37.36%)

🧭 Strategy Outlook

Short-term trading opportunities (based on seasonality & dividend trends):
1. Buy in Feb, Sell in Apr
2. Buy in May, Sell in June
3. Buy in July, Sell in Aug
4. Buy in Nov, Sell in Dec

👉 If already holding ONGC, best exit window could be in November (post-dividend bounce).

✅ Buy or Not Buy?

Current price below book value (positive 🌸)
Weak YoY profit/EPS growth 👎🏻
Attractive dividend yield (approx. 5%) 🌸
High volatility (Beta > 1) 👎🏻

🔎 Interpretation: ONGC appears more suited for dividend-focused investors and short-term seasonal trades rather than long-term compounding, given weak growth metrics.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is prepared for educational and analytical purposes only. It reflects personal research, interpretation, and historical trend analysis. This is not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor and align with your financial goals and risk profile before making any investment decisions.

Stock Analysis and Study

ONGC

Study on 18.09.2025

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

--------------------------------------

Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (-3%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (+18%)Good 🌸

Net Profit:(-2%) Poor👎🏻

EPS: (-2%) Poor👎🏻

Result : Q1-8 August 2025

-------------------------------------

Paying dividend 3 time in year (August-Nov-Feb =apprx. 12 /- in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 1.25/- per Share (already paid in Sep )

Upcoming dividend payout in

Nov: X/-per Share

Feb : X/-Per Share

Record date :

Payout date :

--------------------------------------

Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 237 (Below BV=273👍)

52W H/L: 345/205

PE: 8.27 (👎)

PE Sector: 8.84

ROCE:12%(Low👎)

ROE: 10.6% (Low👎)

Book Value :273 (Good 🌸)

Face Value:5

Beta: 1.06(Bad👎)

Forcast:H/M/L

340/273/205

-------------------------------------

Seasonality Trend (Last 17 Years Performance)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 8/16 (Ok)(+2.95%)

Feb: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻) Dividend(-1.54%)

Mar: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-0.02%)

Apr: 13/17 (V.good🌸🌸🌸) (Sell and book Profit)(+3.52%)

May: 8/17 (+2.39%) Sell

June: 10/17 (Good🌸) (+0.62%) Sell

July :7/17 (-1.11%)

Aug: 8/17 (Dividend)(-0.58%)

Sep: 9/17 (Ok)(+1.53%)

Oct: 8/17 (+0.84%)

Nov: 5/17 (Poor👎🏻)(Buy) Dividend (-0.73%)

Dec: 9/17(+1.37%)

–-------------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 4 👎 (Poor) weak Finance

FII: 7.09% (7.12%)⬇️

DII: 30.14% (30.24%)⬇️

Promoter:unchange

Institution Invester : 37.23% (37.36%)⬇️

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

------------------------------------

Strategy Outlook

Shareholding max upto

In current case -Nov (Dividend)

For Max Profit

1.Buy in Feb,---Sell in April,

2. Buy in May,---Sell in June,

3.Buy in July,---Sell in August,

4.Buy in Nov,---Sell in Dec,

Confidence Vote

👉 If you already hold this stock, best exit opportunity may come in Nov .

Buy or Not Buy Decision

⚠️ Disclaimer

This study is intended only for educational and analytical purposes. It reflects personal research, interpretation, and historical trend analysis. It is not investment advice. Investors must consult certified financial advisors and consider individual financial goals and risk profiles before making investment decisions.

Monday, September 15, 2025

NTPC Ltd.- Stock Analysis and Study

Stock Analysis and Study

NTPC Ltd.
Study Date: 25.08.2025

📊 Key Financial Snapshot

Current Price: ₹339.50
52-Week High/Low: ₹448 / ₹293
Book Value: ₹173.54
Face Value: ₹10
PE Ratio (TTM): 13.74 🌸 (Good; Sector Avg: 26.36)
ROCE: 10.8% 👎🏻 (Low)
ROE: 13.6% 👎🏻 (Low)
Beta: 1.11 👎🏻 (High Volatility)
Piotroski Score: 6 🌸 (Good)

💰 Dividend Profile

Dividend Announced: ₹3.35/- per share
Record Date: 4th September 2025
AGM: 29th August 2025
Payout Date: 25th September 2025
Dividend Frequency: 3 times a year (Aug – Oct – Jan)

📈 Performance Highlights

PAT Growth: +11% YoY (Strong Operational Performance)

🎯 Forecast Price Range

High (H): ₹490 👍🏻
Mean (M): ₹417 🙂
Low (L): ₹320 👎🏻

📅 Seasonality & Historical Performance

(Based on 17 years data)

Jan: 6/17 👎🏻 (Poor) → Dividend Period 💰
Feb: 5/17 👎🏻 (Poor) → Buy Opportunity 📈
Mar: 11/17 🌸 (Good) → Sell & Book Profit 📉
Apr: 9/17 🌸 (Good) → Sell 📉
May: 6/17 👎🏻 (Poor)
Jun: 9/17 🌸 (Good) → Sell 📉
Jul: 7/17 (Neutral)
Aug: 10/17 🌸 (Strong) → Dividend Period 💰 (Record Date: 4 Sept)
Sep: 9/17 🌸 (Good)
Oct: 9/17 🌸 (Good) → Dividend Period 💰
Nov: 3/17 👎🏻 (Very Poor) → Buy Opportunity 📈
Dec: 9/17 🌸 (Good)

📌 Seasonality Note:

Q1 (July) & Q4 (May): Revenue dip due to lower power demand.
Q2 & Q3 (Aug–Dec): Stronger performance with higher seasonal demand

✅ Quick Rating Box

P – Poor 👎🏻
G – Good 🌸
D – Dividend 💰
B – Buy 📈
S – Sell 📉
H – High 👍🏻
L – Low 👎🏻
M – Mean 🙂

🔎 Interpretation & Insights

Strengths: Attractive PE vs sector, stable dividend track record, PAT growth of 11% YoY, strong seasonal Q2 & Q3.
Weaknesses: Low ROE & ROCE, high beta (volatility).
Opportunities: Dividend income consistency; strong performance in Aug–Oct & Dec.
Risks: Cyclical demand dependency, seasonality affecting Q1 & Q4.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This analysis is prepared purely for educational and analytical purposes. It reflects independent research, data interpretation, and study insights. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendation. Investors must consult certified financial advisors, considering personal risk appetite and financial goals, before making investment decisions.

Nucleus Software - Stock Analysis and Study

📊 Stock Study & Analysis

Nucleus Software
Study Date: 20.08.2025

🔹 Company Performance & Dividend

Dividend Payout: Once a year in July → ₹12/- per share
Latest Dividend Announced: ₹12.50/- per share
Record Date: (Not specified)
Payout Date: 11.07.2025 (Already Paid)

🔹 Current Market Snapshot

CMP: ₹1018
Book Value (BV): ₹304 (Low)
52W H/L: ₹1574 / ₹724
PE Ratio: 16.2 (Low) vs. Sector PE: 27.50
ROCE: 22.6% (Good)
ROE: 16.8% (Good)
Face Value: ₹10
Beta: 1.11 (High Risk / Volatile)
Piotroski Score: 4 (Weak Financials)

🔹 Institutional Investment Trend

FII: Increasing 📈
DII: Slight decrease 📉

🔹 Forecast Levels

High / Mean / Low: 1350 / 1350 / 1350

🔹 Seasonality Trend (Last 17 Years Performance)

Month	Positive Return %	Frequency (Times)	Remark
Jan	50%	8/17	Average
Feb	29.41%	5/17	❌ Very Poor (Buy)
Mar	35.29%	6/17	❌ Poor
Apr	94.12%	16/17	✅ Very Good (Best Sell Month)
May	47.06%	8/17	Poor
June	47.06%	8/17	Poor
July	47.06%	8/17	Poor
Aug	47.06%	8/17	Poor
Sep	50.00%	8/17	Average (Sell)
Oct	37.50%	6/17	Buy Opportunity
Nov	37.50%	6/17	Buy Opportunity
Dec	37.50%	6/17	Buy Opportunity

🔹 Strategy Outlook

Buy Months: Feb – Mar
Sell Month: April (ideal profit booking window)
Holding Period: Upto April 2026 for maximum profit potential

🔹 Confidence Vote

⚠️ Not recommended to buy at current levels.
👉 If you already hold this stock, best exit opportunity may come in January.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This study is intended only for educational and analytical purposes. It reflects personal research, interpretation, and historical trend analysis. It is not investment advice. Investors must consult certified financial advisors and consider individual financial goals and risk profiles before making investment decisions.

Study on 20.08.2025

Nucleus Software

Result

Dividend Payout: once a year in July 12/- per share

Dividend Announce : 12.50/- per share

Record date

Payout date : 11.07.2025 (Already Paid)

Current Price: 1018 {BV 304 (Low)}

52 W H/L: 1574/724

PE: 16.2 (Low)

PE Sector: 27.50

ROCE:22.6 (Good)

ROE: 16.8 (Good)

Book Value 304 (Low)

Face Value:10

Beta: 1.11 (Bad)

Piotroski Score :4 (Weak Financial)

QOQ investment by

FII- Increase

DII-slide decrease

Forcast:H/M/L 1350/1350/1350

Seasonality

Positive result in previous years and %

Jan: 50% : 8/17

Feb: 29.41% : 5/17 (v.poor) Buy

Mar: 35.29% : 6/17 (Poor)

Apr : 94.12% : 16/17 (V.good)

(sell off and book max profit)

May: 47.06%: 8/17 (poor)

June: 47.06%: 8/17 (poor)

July: 47.06%: 8/17 (poor)

Aug: 47.06% : 8/17 (poor)

Sep: 50.00% : 8/17- sell

Oct: 37.50% : 6/17- Buy

Nov: 37.50% : 6/17- Buy

Dec: 37.50% : 6/17- Buy

Buy Month: Feb - March

Sell Month : April

Share holding upto April 2026 for max profit

Confidence Vote : Not recommended to buy now. If you already have this share you will get the chance to exit in Jan.

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Stock Analysis and Study Dilip Buildcon Limited (DBL)

Dilip Buildcon Limited (DBL)

Sector: Construction / Mining
Study Date: 02.09.2025

Current Price: ₹470 (Above Book Value: ₹346)

Key Metrics

52W H/L: 582 / 363
PE: 16.7 🌸 (Sector Avg: 19.86)
ROCE: 14.8% 🌸
ROE: 9.97% 👎🏻
Book Value: ₹346 🌸
Face Value: ₹10
Beta: 1.27 👎🏻 (High Volatility)
Piotroski Score: 5 (Average Finance)

Forecast (H/M/L): 480 / 451 / 419

Dividend

Pays once a year (₹1 per share in September)
Latest Dividend: 🌸 ₹1 per share
- Record Date: Pending
- Payout Date: Pending

Shareholding Pattern

(Current % vs Previous %)

FII: ⬇️ 2.76% (2.82%)
DII: ⬇️ 5.93% (6.92%)
Promoters: 63.14% (Unchanged)
Institutional Investors: ⬆️ 9.68% (8.75%)
Public: ⬆️ 11.21% (11.16%)

Seasonality Trends

Jan: 👎🏻 -4.10% → Buy
Feb: 🌸 +7.76% → Sell
Mar: 🌸 +2.35%
Apr: 🌸 +5.11%
May: 😐 -1.14% → Buy
June: 😅 +0.52% → Hold
July: 🌸 +5.29% → Sell
Aug: 🌸 +7.21% → Sell / Book Profit
Sep: 👎🏻 -2.46% → Buy
Oct: 👎🏻 +0.44% → Buy
Nov: 🌸 +5.96% → Sell
Dec: 👎🏻 -4.16%

Max Profit Strategy:
✅ Buy in: Dec–Jan, May, Oct
✅ Sell in: Feb, Aug, Nov

Final View (Confidence Vote)

Price is above mean ₹451/-.
Weak ROE & declining FII/DII holding.
High volatility risk.

👉 Not Recommended to Buy Now. Wait for correction near ₹451 or below.

Disclaimer

Dilip Buildcon Limited

Construction/Mining

Study on 02.09.2025

Current Price: 470 (Above Book Value: 346 )

-----------------------------------

Icon Note

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

-----------------------------------

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Paying dividend 1 time in year (1/- per Share in September)

Dividend Announce :🌸 1/- per Share

Record date :

Payout date :

52W H/L: 582/363

PE:16.7 (Good🌸)

PE Sector: 19.86

ROCE:14.8% (Good🌸)

ROE: 9.97% (Poor👎🏻)

Book Value: 346 (Good🌸)

Face Value:10

Beta: 1.27 (Poor👎🏻)

Forcast:H/M/L

480/451/419

Piotroski Score : 5 Average Finance

-----------------------------------

Holding

current% (old%)

FII: ⬇️ 2.76% (2.82%)

DII: ⬇️ 5.93% (6.92%)

Promoter: Unchanged (63.14%)

Institution Invester :⬆️ 9.68% (8.75%)

Public ⬆️ 11.21% (11.16%)

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 4/9 (Poor👎🏻)(-4.10%)-Buy

Feb: 5/9 (Good🌸) (+7.76%)-Sell

Mar: 5/9 (Good🌸)(+2.35%)

Apr:6/9 (Good🌸) (+5.11%)

May: 5/9 (Ok)(-1.14%)- Buy

June:6/9 (Hold) (+0.52%)

July:5/9 (Good🌸) (+5.29%)-Sell

Aug: 6/9 (Good🌸)(+7.21%)-Sell and book Profit

Sep: 3/10 (Poor👎🏻)(-2.46%)-Buy

Oct: 3/10 (Poor👎🏻)(0.44%) -Buy

Nov:6/10 (Good🌸) (5.96%) -Sell

Dec:2/10 (Poor👎🏻) (-4.16%)

For Max Profit

buy in Dec-Jan, May , Oct

Sell in Feb, Aug, Nov

Confidence Vote: Not recommended to Buy now as Price is above mean 451/-

Disclaimer

Stock Analysis & Study- Havells India Ltd.

📊 Stock Analysis & Study

Havells India Ltd.
Study Date: 03.09.2025

Current Price: ₹1588/-
Valuation: Too High / Above Book Value (₹124)

🔹 Key Financials & Performance

June 2025 Result: ⬇️ YoY Decline

Dividend Policy: Pays dividend twice a year (Jan & May)

Latest Dividend: 🌸 ₹6/- per share on 23.05.2025 ✅

52W H/L: ₹2106 / ₹1381

ROCE: 25.3% 🌸 (Strong)

ROE: 17.68% 🌸 (Healthy)

Book Value: ₹124 👎🏻 (Low vs CMP)

P/E Ratio: 65.04 👎🏻 (Expensive)

Sector P/E: 60.36

Beta: 0.91 🌸 (Stable, Low Volatility)

Target Price Range (H/M/L): ₹1915 / ₹1708 / ₹1350

Face Value: ₹1

🔹 Ratings Legend

P = Poor 👎🏻 | G = Good 🌸 | D = Dividend | B = Buy | S = Sell | HD = Hold 😅 | HH = High 👍🏻 | L = Low 👎🏻 | M = Mean

🔹 Fundamental Indicators

Piotroski Score: 7 🌸🌸 (Very Good – Strong Financial Health)

Shareholding Pattern (as of Sept 2025):

FII: ⬇️ 21.59% (Prev. 22.31%)

DII: ⬆️ 13.36% (Prev. 12.76%)

Promoter: ⬇️ 59.38% (Prev. 59.41%)

Institutional Investors: ⬇️ 34.95% (Prev. 35.07%)

Overall: Slight decline in promoter & FII holdings, DII support improving.

🔹 Seasonality Analysis (17-Year Historical Trend)

Jan: 7/17 👎🏻 (+1.19%) → Buy (D)

Feb: 8/17 👎🏻 (-0.37%) → Buy

Mar: 11/17 🌸 (+7.18%) → Sell

Apr: 13/17 🌸🌸 (+4.06%) → Sell & Book Profit

May: 10/17 🌸 (+5.69%) → Sell (D)

June: 7/17 👎🏻 (+1.38%) → Buy

July: 12/17 🌸 (+2.18%) → Sell

Aug: 12/17 🌸 (+5.11%) → Sell

Sep: 11/17 🌸 (+2.24%) → Sell & Book Profit

Oct: 7/17 👎🏻 (-1.35%) → Buy

Nov: 12/17 🌸 (+4.83%) → Sell & Book Profit

Dec: 10/17 🌸 (+3.81%) → Sell

Optimal Strategy for Max Profit:

Buy in Feb → Sell in Apr

Buy in June → Sell in Aug

Buy in Oct → Sell in Nov

🔹 Q1 FY2026 Results (Weak)

Sales: ⬇️ 6%

EBITDA: ⬇️ 10%

Net Profit: ⬇️ 15%

EPS: ⬇️ 15%

🎯 Confidence Vote:

📌 SELL (Short Term)

Current valuations stretched (P/E > Sector Average).

Book value low vs CMP.

Weak quarterly performance.

Seasonal data also favors profit booking post-August.

Disclaimer

This document is purely for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents personal study, data interpretation, and thought-provoking observations. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions after consulting certified financial advisors, taking into account their own objectives and risk appetite.

Havells India
Study on 03.09.2025
Current Price: 1588/- (Too high or Above Book Value: 124)
Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY
Paying dividend 2 time in year (Jan and May)
Dividend Announce :🌸 6/- per Share in 23.05.2025 (Already Done)
52W H/L: 2106/1381
Roce:25.3% (Good🌸)
ROE:17.68%(Good🌸)
Book Value:124(Poor👎🏻)
PE:65.04 (Poor👎🏻)
Sector PE:60.36
Beta:0.91(Good🌸)
Target High/Mean/low:1915/1708/1350
Face Value:1
-----------------------------------
P-Poor👎🏻
G- Good 🌸
D-Dividend
B-Buy
S-Sell
HD-Hold 😅
HH-High 👍🏻
L-Low 👎🏻
M- Mean

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅
-----------------------------------
Piotroski Score : 7 🌸🌸 (V.Good) Strong Finance
FII: ⬇️ 21.59% (22.31%)
DII: ⬆️ 13.36% (12.76%)
Promoter: ⬇️ 59.38% (59.41%)
Institution Invester :⬇️ 34.95% (35.07%)

Current% (old%)
Unchanged
-----------------------------------
Seasonality
Positive result in
Jan: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻) (+1.19%) Buy (D)
Feb: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻) (-0.37%)
Mar:11/17 (Good🌸)(+7.18%) Sell
Apr: 13/17 (V.Good🌸🌸) (+4.06%) Sell and book Profit
May:10/17 (Good🌸) (+5.69%) Sell (D)
June: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻)(+1.38%) Buy
July:12/17 (Good🌸) (+2.18%) Sell
Aug:12/17(Good🌸)(+5.11%) Sell
Sep:11/17 (Good🌸) (+2.24%) Sell and book Profit.
Oct: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻) (-1 35%) Buy
Nov: 12/17 (Good🌸)(+4.83%) Sell and book Profit
Dec: 10/17 (Good🌸)(+3.81%) Sell

For Max Profit
Feb (Buy) / Apr (Sell),
June (Buy)/Aug (Sell)
Oct (Buy/ Nov (Sell)

Q12026 Result was Poor
Sale: ⬇️ 6%
EBITA: ⬇️ 10%
Net Profit: ⬇️15%
EPS: ⬇️15%
Share Holding upto:15 Sep

Confidence Vote: Currently time to Sell.

STLTECH – Sterlite Technologies Limited - Stock Analysis and Study -

Stock Analyze / Self Study on 04.09.2025

STLTECH – Sterlite Technologies Limited
Current Price: ₹108 (Above Book Value: ₹40.8)

📊 Indicators

P – Poor 👎🏻
G – Good 🌸
D – Dividend
B – Buy
S – Sell
HD – Hold 😅
HH – High 👍🏻
L – Low 👎🏻
M – Mean

Result: June Result ⬇️ % YoY

Dividend: ❌ Zero times in year (X-Zero)
Dividend Announced: 0/- per share 🌸
Record Date: NA
Payout Date: NA

Fundamentals

52W H/L: 140 / 52.2
PE: -- (Poor 👎🏻)
PE Sector: 17.68
ROCE: 2.86% (Very Poor 👎🏻)
ROE: -6.38% (Very Poor 👎🏻)
Book Value: ₹40.8 (OK)
Face Value: ₹2
Beta: 1.23 (Poor 👎🏻 – high volatility)
Forecast (H/M/L): 150 / 128 / 106
Piotroski Score: 3 👎🏻👎🏻 (Very Poor, weak finance)

Shareholding Pattern

FII: ⬇️ 6.74% (prev 7.28%)
DII: ⬇️ 11.33% (prev 11.61%)
Promoter: ⬆️ 44.40% (prev 44.16%)
Institutional Investors: ⬇️ 18.08% (prev 18.89%)

Seasonality (Performance Month-wise – 17 Years Data)

Jan: 8/17 (Ok 👍🏻) +0.42%
Feb: 6/17 (Poor 👎🏻) -6.50% → Buy
Mar: 6/17 (Poor 👎🏻) -0.23% → Buy
Apr: 12/17 (Good 🌸) +9.23% → Sell / Book Profit
May: 8/17 (Ok 👍🏻) +5.79% → Sell
June: 10/17 (Good 🌸) +6.74% → Sell
July: 11/17 (Good 🌸) +7.14% → Sell
Aug: 7/17 (Poor 👎🏻) -1.67% → Buy
Sep: 10/17 (Good 🌸) +3.00% → Sell
Oct: 7/17 (Poor 👎🏻) +3.09% → Buy
Nov: 7/17 (Poor 👎🏻) -0.66% → Buy
Dec: 7/17 (Poor 👎🏻) +0.49% → Buy

📌 Best Strategy for Max Profit:

Buy in Feb
Sell in Apr

Latest Quarterly Result (Q1 FY26 – Excellent YoY)

Sales: ⬆️ +17%
EBITDA: ⬆️ +106%
Net Profit: ⬆️ +121%
EPS: ⬆️ +120%

Confidence Vote ✅

Selling time → Book Profit
❌ Not recommended for fresh Buy at current levels.

Disclaimer

This document is purely for educational and analytical purposes only. It represents personal study, data interpretation, and thought-provoking observations. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Investors must make independent decisions after consulting certified financial advisors, taking into account their own objectives and risk appetite.

STLTECH

Sterlite Technologies Limited

Study on 04.09.2025

Current Price: 108 (Above Book Value: 40.8)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Paying dividend X Zero time in year (X-Zero)

Dividend Announce :🌸 zero 0/- per Share

Record date :NA

Payout date : NA

52W H/L: 140/52.2

PE: --(Poor 👎🏻)

PE Sector:17.68

ROCE:% (2.86% V.Poor👎🏻)

ROE: % (-6.38% V.Poor👎🏻)

Book Value: 40.8 (OK)

Face Value:2

Beta:1.23 (Poor👎🏻)

Forcast:H/M/L

150/128/106

Piotroski Score : 3👎🏻👎🏻 (V.poor) V.Week Finance

FII: ⬇️ 6.74% (7.28%

DII: ⬇️ 11.33% (11.61%)

Promoter:⬆️ 44.40% (44.16%)

Institution Invester :⬇️ 18.08% (18.89%)

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

Unchanged

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 8/17 (Ok) (+0.42%)

Feb: 6/17 (Poor👎🏻) (-6.50%)- Buy

Mar: 6/17 (Poor👎🏻) (-0.23%)- Buy

Apr: 12/17 (Good🌸)(+9.23%) - Sell and book Profit

May:8/17 (Ok👍🏻) (+5.79%) - Sell

June:10/17 (Good🌸) (+6.74%) - Sell

July:11/17 (Good🌸) (+7.14%)- Sell

Aug: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻) (-1.67%)- Buy

Sep:10/17 (Good🌸) (+3.00%)-Sell

Oct: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻)(+3.09%)- Buy

Nov: 7/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-0.66%)-Buy

Dec: 7/17 (Poor)👎🏻(+0.49%)-Buy

For Max Profit

buy in Feb (Buy)

Sell in April (Sell)

Q12026 Result was excellent YOY

Sale:⬆️ +17%

EBITA:⬆️ +106%

Net Profit:⬆️ +121%

EPS:⬆️ +120%

Share holding upto

Confidence Vote: Selling time book profit . Not recommended to buy

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Applause for the Government of India’s Bold GST 2.0 Reform

Amid rising economic headwinds and ahead of the festive season, the Government of India, under the leadership of the Ministry of Finance, has unveiled one of the most transformative tax reforms in recent memory—GST 2.0, effective September 22, 2025, aligned with the beginning of Navratri. This is a strategic and timely initiative that deserves high praise:

Consumer-first approach: The reforms slash tax burdens on everyday essentials—food, medicine, sanitary products, insurance—directly restoring purchasing power to the common household. A heartfelt “Diwali gift” to the citizenry. (The Times of India, The Economic Times, Indiatimes)
Simplified tax regime: By streamlining GST from four slabs to two—5% for essentials and 18% for most other goods and services—the government has significantly reduced complexity, making compliance easier for businesses and enhancing clarity. (The Economic Times, Reuters)
Progressive differentiation: The introduction of a 40% “sin/luxury” slab for high-end items (e.g., luxury cars, tobacco, alcohol) reinforces fiscal fairness by taxing discretionary consumption more heavily. (Financial Times, The Economic Times, Reuters)
Stimulus to consumption-led growth: With lower taxes on electronics, automobiles, home appliances, and personal care, the reform is poised to spur consumer demand, boost festive sales, and deliver much-needed momentum to the economy. (The Times of India, The Economic Times)
Public appreciation & transparency: The reform has been widely lauded on social media and in industry circles as equitable, timely, and well-targeted toward easing the cost of living. (Indiatimes, Reuters)
Forward-looking governance: Rolling out GST 2.0 on a festival day exemplifies thoughtful policymaking—combining symbolism with practicality to ensure the reforms resonate with families across India. (Indiatimes, The Times of India)

Detailed Highlights of GST 2.0 (Effective 22 September 2025)

1. New Tax Slabs

Consolidated to 5% (essential goods) and 18% (standard items)
Introduced a 40% super-luxury/sin slab for tobacco, alcohol, high-end vehicles, and luxury goods (The Economic Times, Reuters, Financial Times)

2. Items Moved to a 0–5% Slab (Big Relief)

0%: UHT milk; pre-packaged paneer; roti, khakhra, pizza bread; educational stationery (maps, crayons, notebooks); life insurance; health insurance (The Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Financial Times, The Times of India)
5%: Butter, ghee, cheese, dairy spreads; dry fruits and nuts; chocolates, pastries; shampoos, soaps, toothpaste, personal care items; household goods; feeding bottles; sewing machines; medical supplies and diagnostic kits; small appliances (www.ndtv.com, Hindustan Times, The Times of India, The Economic Times)

3. Electronics, Appliances & Automobiles (Cheaper!)

Items like TVs, air conditioners, dishwashers, refrigerators, laptops, and smartphones have moved from 28% to 18% GST, reducing purchase costs. (The Times of India, Reuters)
Motorcycles and scooters ≤ 350cc: 18% (down from 28%) — benefits ~98% of the market. (The Economic Times)
High-end bikes > 350cc and luxury vehicles: 40% "sin tax" slab. (The Economic Times, Reuters)

4. Healthcare & Essential Services

All drugs, medical devices, diagnostics, oxygen: 5% or Nil GST. (The Economic Times, www.ndtv.com, The Times of India)
Individual life and health insurance: 0% GST (tax-exempt). (The Indian Express, www.ndtv.com, Financial Times)

5. Food & Beverages

Everyday items like butter, condensed milk, dry fruits, dairy products, packaged juices, jellies, and snacks: 5% GST (from 12–18%). (www.ndtv.com, Hindustan Times, The Times of India, The Economic Times, Reuters)
Packaged beverages with added sugar, carbonated drinks, caffeinated beverages: 40% GST. (Jagranjosh.com, www.ndtv.com, Financial Times, The Economic Times)

6. Construction & Farming Tools

Cement, coal, farm tools, irrigation machinery, fertilizers: reduced to 5% or 18%, supporting agriculture and infrastructure. (Hindustan Times, www.ndtv.com, The Times of India, Reuters)

7. Entertainment and Services

Cinema tickets ≤ ₹100: 5%; > ₹100: 40%. (Jagranjosh.com, www.ndtv.com)
Educational and health services (e.g., private tuition, vocational courses, charitable hospitals): 0% GST. (Jagranjosh.com, www.ndtv.com)
Hotel rooms (≤ ₹7,500 per night): 5%. (Jagranjosh.com, www.ndtv.com)
Beauty & wellness: 5%. (Jagranjosh.com, www.ndtv.com)

8. Administrative Rollout Notes

Reform passed at the 56th GST Council in New Delhi on September 3, 2025.
Implementation from September 22, 2025 (day one of Navratri) — symbolic, consumer-friendly timing. (The Economic Times, Indiatimes, The Indian Express, The Times of India)

Summary Overview

Category	Change	Impact
Essentials (food, medicine, insurance)	Moved to 0%–5% GST	Lower cost of living
Consumer goods & electronics	Moved to 18% from 28%	Greater affordability, higher demand
Luxury/sin items	New 40% slab	Revenue from high spend, fairness
Healthcare/education services & hotels	0%–5%	Supports welfare sectors
Implementation timing	Effective 22 Sep 2025 (Navratri)	Festive boost, political + social resonance

Final Thoughts

This landmark reform—GST 2.0—reflects a commendable alignment of economic strategy, social welfare, and administrative simplification. The Government of India has not only eased fiscal pressure on the common citizen but also infused fresh vitality into consumer markets just in time for the festive season. This is governance that understands its people—and meets them with thoughtful, impactful action.

Thursday, October 2, 2025

GNFC (Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd.)

Quick Indicators

Financial Snapshot

Strength Indicators

Seasonality Performance (17-Year Historical Data)

Conclusion

Disclaimer

Stock Analysis / Study

Company: Crompton Greaves Date: 10.09.2025

Key Valuation Metrics

Quarterly Performance (June 2025 – YoY)

Sales: ↓ 7% 👎🏻 (Poor) EBITDA: ↓ 18% 👎🏻 (Poor) Net Profit: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor) EPS: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor) 📉 Observation: Weak operational and bottom-line performance.

Dividend Policy

Dividend Frequency: Once a year (July) Latest Dividend (July 2025): ₹3 per share 🌸 Record Date / Payout Date: [Data not provided]

Seasonality Analysis (Historical Trends)

Financial Strength & Shareholding

Piotroski Score: 7 🌸🌸 (Very Good – Strong Financial Position) FII Holding: 29.20% (Previous: 30.34%) ⬇️ DII Holding: 58.93% (Previous: 57.04%) ⬆️ Promoter Holding: Unchanged Total Institutional Investors: 88.13% (Previous: 87.38%) ⬆️

Investment Strategy (Seasonality-Based)

For Maximum Profit Potential: Buy in Feb → Sell in May–June–July–Aug Buy in Sep–Oct → Sell in Nov–Dec

Verdict

Valuation: Expensive (10x Book Value), but supported by strong ROCE & ROE. Performance: Current quarter results weak 👎🏻. Positives: Strong institutional holding, low beta, good Piotroski score. Negatives: Sales and profit decline, high valuation.

Disclaimer

Stock Analyze /Self Study on 10.09.2025

Crompton Greaves

Current Price: 317 (10 time Above Book Value: 48.26)

P-Poor👎🏻

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

--------------------------------------

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (-7%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (-18%) Poor👎🏻

Net Profit:(-19%) Poor👎🏻

EPS;: (-19%) Poor👎🏻

-------------------------------------

Paying dividend 1 time in year (3/- in July)

Dividend Announce :🌸 3/- per Share (already paid in July )

Record date :

Payout date :

--------------------------------------

Current Price: 319

52W H/L: 469/301

PE: 38.90 (Good🌸)

PE Sector: 70.58

ROCE:19% (Good🌸)

ROE: 17.4 (Good🌸)

Book Value :48.26 (Low)

Face Value:2

Beta: 0.71 (Good🌸)

Forcast:H/M/L

470/406/335

-------------------------------------

Seasonality

Positive result in

Jan: 3/9 (Poor,👎) (+2.89%)

Feb:1/9( V.poor👎👎) (-4.31) Buy

Mar:5/9 (Poor 👎) (-1.46%)

Apr:5/9 (Poor 👎)(+1.60)

May: 7/9 (V.good🌸🌸)(+3.50%)

(Sell and book Profit)

June:8/10( V.good🌸🌸)(+2.65%)

(Sell and book Profit)

July: 7/10 (+4.65%)

Aug :8/9 (V.good🌸🌸) (+3.02%) sell

Sep:5/10(Poor👎) (-1.64%) Buy

Oct: 3/9 (Poor👎) (-0.76%) Buy

Nov:7/9 (V.Good🌸🌸)(+0.96%) Sell

Dec:4/9 (Poor👎)(+2.25%)

–-------------------------------------

Piotroski Score : 7 🌸🌸 (V.Good) Strong Finance

FII: 29.20% (30.34)

DII: 58.93% (57.04%)

Promoter:unchange

Company: Crompton Greaves
Date: 10.09.2025

Sales: ↓ 7% 👎🏻 (Poor)

EBITDA: ↓ 18% 👎🏻 (Poor)

Net Profit: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor)

EPS: ↓ 19% 👎🏻 (Poor)

📉 Observation: Weak operational and bottom-line performance.

Dividend Frequency: Once a year (July)

Latest Dividend (July 2025): ₹3 per share 🌸

Record Date / Payout Date: [Data not provided]

Piotroski Score: 7 🌸🌸 (Very Good – Strong Financial Position)

FII Holding: 29.20% (Previous: 30.34%) ⬇️

DII Holding: 58.93% (Previous: 57.04%) ⬆️

Promoter Holding: Unchanged

Total Institutional Investors: 88.13% (Previous: 87.38%) ⬆️

For Maximum Profit Potential:

Buy in Feb → Sell in May–June–July–Aug

Buy in Sep–Oct → Sell in Nov–Dec

Valuation: Expensive (10x Book Value), but supported by strong ROCE & ROE.

Performance: Current quarter results weak 👎🏻.

Positives: Strong institutional holding, low beta, good Piotroski score.

Negatives: Sales and profit decline, high valuation.