ONGC- Stock Study and Analysis

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📊 Stock Analysis & Study: ONGC

Study Date: 18 September 2025

Legend:
P = Poor 👎🏻 | G = Good 🌸 | D = Dividend | B = Buy | S = Sell | HD = Hold 😅 | HH = High 👍🏻 | L = Low 👎🏻 | M = Mean

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🏢 Company Performance & Dividend

Q1 FY25 Results (announced 8 August 2025):

• Sales: -3% YoY → Poor 👎🏻

• EBITDA: +18% YoY → Good 🌸

• Net Profit: -2% YoY → Poor 👎🏻

• EPS: -2% YoY → Poor 👎🏻

Dividend Policy:

• ONGC pays dividends three times a year (Aug–Nov–Feb), totaling approximately ₹12 per share annually.

• Recent payout: 🌸 ₹1.25 per share (already paid in September 2025).

• Upcoming dividends:

  • November: X/- per share

  • February: X/- per share

• Record Date & Payout Date: To be announced.

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💹 Current Market Snapshot

• Current Price: ₹237 (Below BV = ₹273 👍)

• 52W H/L: ₹345 / ₹205

• P/E: 8.27 👎 (Sector P/E: 8.84)

• ROCE: 12% (Low 👎)

• ROE: 10.6% (Low 👎)

• Book Value: ₹273 🌸

• Face Value: ₹5

• Beta: 1.06 (High volatility 👎)

Price Forecast (H/M/L): ₹340 / ₹273 / ₹205

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📈 Seasonality Trend (17-Year Historical Performance)

• Jan: 8/16 (+2.95%) → Ok

• Feb: 8/17 (-1.54%) → Poor 👎🏻 (Dividend month)

• Mar: 8/17 (-0.02%) → Poor 👎🏻

• Apr: 13/17 (+3.52%) → Very Good 🌸🌸🌸 (Sell & book profits)

• May: 8/17 (+2.39%) → Sell

• June: 10/17 (+0.62%) → Good 🌸 (Sell)

• July: 7/17 (-1.11%)

• Aug: 8/17 (-0.58%) → Dividend month

• Sep: 9/17 (+1.53%) → Ok

• Oct: 8/17 (+0.84%)

• Nov: 5/17 (-0.73%) → Poor 👎🏻 (Buy opportunity + Dividend)

• Dec: 9/17 (+1.37%)

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📊 Institutional & Financial Indicators

• Piotroski Score: 4 👎 → Weak financial health

• FII: 7.09% (↓ from 7.12%)

• DII: 30.14% (↓ from 30.24%)

• Promoter Holding: Unchanged

• Total Institutional Holding: 37.23% (↓ from 37.36%)

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🧭 Strategy Outlook

• Short-term trading opportunities (based on seasonality & dividend trends):

  1. Buy in Feb, Sell in Apr

  2. Buy in May, Sell in June

  3. Buy in July, Sell in Aug

  4. Buy in Nov, Sell in Dec

👉 If already holding ONGC, best exit window could be in November (post-dividend bounce).

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✅ Buy or Not Buy?

• Current price below book value (positive 🌸)

• Weak YoY profit/EPS growth 👎🏻

• Attractive dividend yield (approx. 5%) 🌸

• High volatility (Beta > 1) 👎🏻

🔎 Interpretation: ONGC appears more suited for dividend-focused investors and short-term seasonal trades rather than long-term compounding, given weak growth metrics.

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⚠️ Disclaimer

This report is prepared for educational and analytical purposes only. It reflects personal research, interpretation, and historical trend analysis. This is not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor and align with your financial goals and risk profile before making any investment decisions.

Stock Analysis and Study 

ONGC

Study on 18.09.2025

P-Poor👎🏻 

G- Good 🌸

D-Dividend

B-Buy

S-Sell

HD-Hold 😅

HH-High 👍🏻

L-Low 👎🏻

M- Mean

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Company Performance & Dividend

Result :June Result ⬇️ % YOY

Sale : (-3%) Poor👎🏻

EBIDT: (+18%)Good 🌸

Net Profit:(-2%) Poor👎🏻

EPS: (-2%) Poor👎🏻

Result : Q1-8 August 2025

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Paying dividend 3 time in year (August-Nov-Feb =apprx. 12 /- in a year)

Dividend Announce :🌸 1.25/- per Share (already paid in Sep )

Upcoming dividend payout in 

Nov: X/-per Share

Feb : X/-Per Share

Record date :

Payout date : 

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Current Market Snapshot

Current Price: 237 (Below BV=273👍)

52W H/L: 345/205

PE: 8.27 (👎)

PE Sector: 8.84

ROCE:12%(Low👎)

ROE: 10.6% (Low👎)

Book Value :273 (Good 🌸)

Face Value:5

Beta: 1.06(Bad👎)

Forcast:H/M/L

340/273/205

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Seasonality Trend (Last 17 Years Performance)

Seasonality

Positive result in 

Jan: 8/16 (Ok)(+2.95%)

Feb: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻) Dividend(-1.54%)

Mar: 8/17 (Poor👎🏻)(-0.02%)

Apr: 13/17 (V.good🌸🌸🌸) (Sell and book Profit)(+3.52%)

May: 8/17 (+2.39%) Sell

June: 10/17 (Good🌸) (+0.62%) Sell

July :7/17 (-1.11%)

Aug: 8/17 (Dividend)(-0.58%)

Sep: 9/17 (Ok)(+1.53%)

Oct: 8/17 (+0.84%)

Nov: 5/17 (Poor👎🏻)(Buy) Dividend (-0.73%)

Dec: 9/17(+1.37%)

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Piotroski Score : 4 👎 (Poor) weak Finance

FII: 7.09% (7.12%)⬇️ 

DII: 30.14% (30.24%)⬇️ 

Promoter:unchange

Institution Invester : 37.23% (37.36%)⬇️ 

⬆️⬇️ 🌸👍🏻👎🏻😅current% (old%)

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Strategy Outlook

Shareholding max upto 

In current case -Nov (Dividend)

For Max Profit 

1.Buy in Feb,---Sell in April,

2. Buy in May,---Sell in June,

3.Buy in July,---Sell in August,

4.Buy in Nov,---Sell in Dec,

Confidence Vote

👉 If you already hold this stock, best exit opportunity may come in Nov .

Buy or Not Buy Decision 

⚠️ Disclaimer

This study is intended only for educational and analytical purposes. It reflects personal research, interpretation, and historical trend analysis. It is not investment advice. Investors must consult certified financial advisors and consider individual financial goals and risk profiles before making investment decisions.